GDP Q309 at -1.2%

BNM announced the third quarter GDP yesterday. I must admit the figures are interesting.

Q309 GDP -1.2%
Clearly this figure is acceptable for the time being. Since Q309 is better than Q209 I must also revise my estimate on 2009 GDP. Thus I say the 2009 GDP will be -2.8%


CPI
Q209 at 1.3%
Q309 at 2.3%
If I go to the wet market during this rainy season the price of fish, prawn and squids are quite high. Will it reflect the Q409 CPI?


Financial Sector
RWCR at 14.5% , CCR at 12.9% , Net NPL at 2.1%
Insurance Capital Adequacy Ratio at 214% compared to Q209 at 208%
It must be noted that NPL is classified between 1 to 3 months


Trade
Despite the reduced trade (imports down 18.3% , exports down 22.3%) a trade surplus of RM26.7 Billion is attained while reserves maintained at $96 Billion US.
The decision of the US Government to abandon FTA with Malaysia is understandable. I wonder if the US is keen on GSP with Malaysia again. To me FTA is good with a few set backs. As a result of the US Canada FTA 1989 the Canadian government was forced to relent to the CAW demands and bailed out General Motors Co last summer. If the Ontario government decides to save Canadian taxpayers money then many CAWs are jobless.


FDI
Q209 RM91 Billion, Q309 RM62 Billion
Honestly I don't understand this figure. A lower FDI while there is no more FDI committee? To me increasing interest rate per se will not attract much FDI.


Perhaps my earlier prediction of a lower consumption spending does not materialize. Obviously H1N1 has little impact on Malaysians. I guess I overlooked this particular aspect.


I look forward to a positive GDP Q409 number.

Correction - Tuanku Muhriz

The correct spelling of the new installed Negeri Sembilan ruler is:

Tuanku Muhriz ibni Almarhum Tuanku Munawir.

Please forgive me for the mistake.

GM To Repay Loans

Reading from the Associated Press that General Motors Co will start repaying its loans from the US and Canadian governments is expected. Right from the beginning of the crisis I have no doubts on GM's ability to pay its loans on time.


The initial sum of $6.7 billion to be paid quarterly i.e. $1 billion to the US government and $200 million to the Canadian government indicates the cash flow stream of GM. I do not know if the US and Canadian governments would charge penalties for early repayments because Malaysian banks do charge some money for early paid off loans. ( My car loan was paid off 3 months earlier than the July 2009 deadline - the bank charged a sum of interests although it was an Islamic Loan from a conventional bank)


Uni Asia General Insurance


Uni Asia General Insurance will soon go bankrupt! That is my prediction.

My Grandmother Died

On 10th November at 11am my grandmother on my father's side died. The news was expected considering she was 90 years old and senile. So now I have no more grandparents.

Al-Fatehah