GDP Q309 at -1.2%

BNM announced the third quarter GDP yesterday. I must admit the figures are interesting.

Q309 GDP -1.2%
Clearly this figure is acceptable for the time being. Since Q309 is better than Q209 I must also revise my estimate on 2009 GDP. Thus I say the 2009 GDP will be -2.8%


CPI
Q209 at 1.3%
Q309 at 2.3%
If I go to the wet market during this rainy season the price of fish, prawn and squids are quite high. Will it reflect the Q409 CPI?


Financial Sector
RWCR at 14.5% , CCR at 12.9% , Net NPL at 2.1%
Insurance Capital Adequacy Ratio at 214% compared to Q209 at 208%
It must be noted that NPL is classified between 1 to 3 months


Trade
Despite the reduced trade (imports down 18.3% , exports down 22.3%) a trade surplus of RM26.7 Billion is attained while reserves maintained at $96 Billion US.
The decision of the US Government to abandon FTA with Malaysia is understandable. I wonder if the US is keen on GSP with Malaysia again. To me FTA is good with a few set backs. As a result of the US Canada FTA 1989 the Canadian government was forced to relent to the CAW demands and bailed out General Motors Co last summer. If the Ontario government decides to save Canadian taxpayers money then many CAWs are jobless.


FDI
Q209 RM91 Billion, Q309 RM62 Billion
Honestly I don't understand this figure. A lower FDI while there is no more FDI committee? To me increasing interest rate per se will not attract much FDI.


Perhaps my earlier prediction of a lower consumption spending does not materialize. Obviously H1N1 has little impact on Malaysians. I guess I overlooked this particular aspect.


I look forward to a positive GDP Q409 number.

Correction - Tuanku Muhriz

The correct spelling of the new installed Negeri Sembilan ruler is:

Tuanku Muhriz ibni Almarhum Tuanku Munawir.

Please forgive me for the mistake.

GM To Repay Loans

Reading from the Associated Press that General Motors Co will start repaying its loans from the US and Canadian governments is expected. Right from the beginning of the crisis I have no doubts on GM's ability to pay its loans on time.


The initial sum of $6.7 billion to be paid quarterly i.e. $1 billion to the US government and $200 million to the Canadian government indicates the cash flow stream of GM. I do not know if the US and Canadian governments would charge penalties for early repayments because Malaysian banks do charge some money for early paid off loans. ( My car loan was paid off 3 months earlier than the July 2009 deadline - the bank charged a sum of interests although it was an Islamic Loan from a conventional bank)


Uni Asia General Insurance


Uni Asia General Insurance will soon go bankrupt! That is my prediction.

My Grandmother Died

On 10th November at 11am my grandmother on my father's side died. The news was expected considering she was 90 years old and senile. So now I have no more grandparents.

Al-Fatehah

SOCCER- Malaysia Cup 2009

My congratulations to the Negeri Sembilan soccer team on winning the Malaysia Cup final. As Negeri Sembilan is where my roots came from I am proud of the 2009 team. This cup is indeed a present to Tuanku Mukris who was recently installed as the new Negeri Sembilan ruler.



Queen of Peoples' Heart


For quite sometime I've been trying to download the song "Candle in the wind" which Elton John sang during the late Princess Diana's funeral. By chance I was able to download that particular song today. As I was listening over and over again, tears came down from my eyes ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

The Opel Experience

My first few articles were mainly aimed at remembering my driving experience in Canada. But I forgot some things too. For instance when I was small my late father owned a Volkswagen. I never wrote that initially. Recently I remember I drove an Opel in 1991. It was a Kadett 1200 manufactured in 1978. Honestly I did not feel the umph because the Opel Kadett was an old model then and I think that particular car was already in the junkyard.

I wonder what was GM's strategy when the boards decided to keep the Opel unit.

If I am a rich person I would buy Opel the company BUT just like Malaysia's famous artist the late Tan Sri P Ramlee said in one of his humor movies "he wants to get married but he has only RM1" (the movie is Bujang Lapuk or the Bachelors and Spinsters)

The Opel episode shall continue...

Manual Versus Automatic Vehicles

Before I went to Canada I never had the chance to drive automatic cars. The Malaysian culture is such that manual cars are much faster compared to automatic cars. A man who drives an auto car is considered a women in Malaysia.

I wonder if there is any CORRELATION between a standard and automatic cars which involved in an accident. I once talked with a traffic police who said accidents in Malaysia involved mainly STANDARD cars. There must be a study on this matter. But the new generation of Malaysians are DEVIATING themselves towards auto cars. My younger sister recently bought an auto Proton and so were my uncles and cousins. It costs at least a thousand more for an auto car compared to a standard in Malaysia.

NATIONAL AUTOMOTIVE POLICY - REVIEW

The Najib administration announced a review on the NAP recently. As expected the car tariffs are maintained but the decision to allow 100% ownership on foreign makes to open manufacturing facilities in Malaysia is unexpected. Maybe it would be better if the government impose a 65% local contents on these foreign car companies. Of course the engine and chassis must come CBU from the originating country. This manufacturing license is limited to luxury cars and motorbikes, hybrid and electric vehicles, pick ups trucks and commercial vehicles.

I have no comment on the ban of used automotive parts but the termination of AP (Approved Permit) to import vehicles by 2020 is long overdue.

My biggest worry is the year 2017 when my Perodua Kancil will be 15 years old. The new rule requires vehicles more than 15 years old be scraped or be subject to 100% inspection before a new road tax is given. This rule was imposed previously for commercial vehicles but accidents are still rampant. The government must provide better amenities for car owners so that this rule of scrapping 15 year old vehicles will not become a headache not only to the authorities but also to the car owners.

One thing which this review overlooked is the accident claims by car owners from the insurance companies. Contrary to Canada, a vehicle in Malaysia must be insured to get it on the road. As for my younger brother's car, his car accident claim with Uni Asia General Insurance has been 6 weeks now.The last time he talked to the workshop, the adjuster just came by and looked. My goodness the adjuster was so slow. In 1990 it took me a month to get my late father's car repaired by the workshop after my car crash December 2, 1990. Bear in mind in 1990 internet is known only in the land of uncle Sam. THERE must be a law for insurance companies to speed up accident claims.

Whether this revised NAP will be a boost to the Malaysian auto industry is too early to predict. But with Ford posing a profit despite GMACs appetite for more American tax payers money my instinct says we are on the RIGHT direction.

My Health

On October 20, I went to the Tuanku Ampuan Najihah Hospital in Kuala Pilah for my regular check up. After much deliberation the doctor decided to discharge me from the specialist clinic. Instead after this I would just go to the Kuala Pilah out patient clinic. I hate it to go to the clinic everyday to get my blood pressure readings!