GDP 2008 is 4.6%

I was listening to Karen Carpenter's Yesterday Once More as I was browsing the Central Bank web site. The not good figures for 2008 justified my concern for the Malaysian economy. For 2008 GDP was 4.6% while Q4 2008 GDP was 0.1%

And now I am still listening to Karen carpenter's song wondering what the economy would be like in the next quarters. Obviously global auto industry is suffering and Proton is no exception. Few years back many quarters suggested Proton find a strategic partner mainly American or European car makers BUT Proton discard the idea and went alone except to renew its partnership with Mitsubishi. Should Proton made that partnership with any western auto makers I guess Proton too would have asked money from the government for restructuring.

Maybe now is the right time for us to ponder the sufferings of the refugees in Africa or even the Palestinians. To these people its not how much bonus or profit which concern them but rather how to put food on the table and sleep under some kind of shelter each night.

To all you smart financiers and economists out there, pull your strengths for new ideas. I have some but I am not a graduate from Saskatchewan yet. So I would put those on hold for the time being.

Overnight Policy Rates and SRR

I caution the decision by the Bank Negara Malaysia to reduce the OPR further down by 5o basis points to 2% as at 24th February 2009. The move by the Malaysian Central Bank could be a hint that a negative is expected for the 4th quarter 2008 GDP figure which is to be announced Friday 27 February 2009. Thus the ceiling rates is now 2.25% and floor rates 1.75% respectively.

Reducing the SRR by 1% to 1% commencing 1st March 2009 is seen now as a needed or just a gimmick. The problem is banks are NOT giving out loans to the needy. Banks have the money to create more money, its only the ordinary Malaysians who are broke.

Datuk Najib as the Finance Minister must take a bold action now. Are we gonna keep reducing OPR into the negatives or are we gonna continue spending public money as sinking funds? More measures must be tackle in the 2nd stimulus package which is to be announced on March 10th 2009. I am certain as an economics graduate Datuk Najib can look beyond fiscal and monetary aspects.

As a human I don't want to take the bus again or lose my home!

Strategy Conflicts

I wonder how many billion per USD more that President Obama is willing to ask Congress to pass. From what I see now the US economy is not getting anywhere at all. Why would GM asked the Swedish government to bail out its subsidiary company SAAB? And why the Swedish government was reluctant to do so?

All governments must remember spending such a big sum of tax payers' money would be a pain in the ass if the expenses were treated as sinking funds. Using public money to renovate and refurbish the CEO's room, entertaining clients at Vegas or even using public money for bedroom leisure to me is unacceptable.

For every stimulus package announced the government tells its people to save during recession and yet the irony of it the government also asked the people to continue spending. I think the advice would be much wiser if it is done according to the spending power of the population.

For Malaysians whose household income more than RM7,000 per month there should be NO discouragement to them if they still want to go for a holiday at a five star resort because they can afford it. But for a clerk whose take home pay is RM1,000 then this is the group which must be advised to save and spend wisely.

Those with large credit card debts must be made to surrender their cards the moment it's overdue rather than made the accounts accumulated with heavy interests. Many people are living on credit cards now. There will be a time when their credit cards are not acceptable anymore and their unemployment benefits could barely put foods on their tables.

I am eager to know the 4th Quarter Malaysian GDP figure which will be announced at the end of the month..........

The Global Auto Industry Is At Stake

My heart sank as news of one car manufacturer after another was asking help from their respective governments for financial support. In recent week French Renault and PSA Peugeot Citroen was given € 3 Billion loan so that its employees could keep their jobs.

Closing a business is the last thing in the mind of every management team. During this hard time I truly agreed with President Obama's remarks on bonuses paid to Wall Street CEO's then using public funds. To those who were forced to leave their jobs and yet seeing their former bosses still receiving bonuses, zipping wines or even buying a new private jet is certainly a pain in the ass.

If Henry Ford is still alive he would regret inventing Model T. Even Enzo Ferrari won't mind just riding a bicycle instead of his fast machine.

Malaysian Made Car PROTON (Perusahaan Otomobil Nasional Berhad)was incorporated on 7th May 1983. I was only 16 years old then but as the first Proton Saga rolled out in 1985, there I was proudly seeing a Malaysian Made Car driven by Malaysians. Although it was just a remake of Mitsubishi that particular first model itself provide the symbol and spirit of Malaysians.I assume I would be much prouder if I go to Britain and seeing a British i.e.my former lords driving a Proton.

There has been real signs of negatives in the Malaysian Economy lately but I doubt that PROTON would need a government support in the very near future because in 1998 Proton too has suffered badly but we survived. I am certain the Malaysian Government would provide something to keep the heart of Malaysian Economy moving in its second stimulus package to be announced soon.

I wonder if the crude oil prices would remain as low as it is now for a long time. But my instinct says crude oil price would remain low until at least end of 2009.Now that people worldwide are driving more cautiously the demand for oil is declining too. Admit it, we only drive our cars now only if we have to rather than just driving around seeing chicks.

Happy Valentine's Day....................

Thank God Its Valentine's Day

Dear God,

I thank you for giving me this life and celebrate this Valentine with my love although we are far far away apart. Our love will always be nurtured no matter what the obstacles.

Happy Valentine's Day

Dear Valentine,

This year would be the 19th year that we could not celebrate Valentine's Day together. No matter what had happened both you and I know that we still love each other.

My Valentine,
It's so hard to endure this feeling of lost without you beside me BUT your voice is still in my ears. Your smile, laughter, anger are fresh in my mind. The kisses and love would last forever.

I Wish you My Valentine A Happy Valentine's Day. I will always love you though we are thousands of kilometers away. We are physically apart BUT not our hearts.

Love,

Visit MELAKA Is Visit Malaysia

I was in the Historical City of Melaka during the Chinese New Year holidays. It has been more than a year since I've been to this city and mind you a lot have changed. Two structures which made me proud as a Malaysian were the Taming Sari Tower and Eye on Malaysia Wheel.

The Taming Sari Tower is the back bone of Melaka. During the 1400 AD Melaka was the center of commerce in this part of Malay Archipelago. Many traders came to do trade in Melaka and some of them stayed permanently here. To me the Taming Sari Tower depicts the spirit of 1400 AD where the tower is the first line of enemy detection.

Eye on Malaysia is the Wheel to depict the tire i.e. our life is full of ups and downs. A rotating wheel would go up and down thus during this period of economic uncertainty the lower end will go up again. The only question is when... The best comparison would be the Economic Cycle Line. Peak - Downturn - Trough - Recovery


Since I last wrote my views, the Malaysian Government has released some figures regarding job cuts in Malaysia until January 2009. Besides Intel, Panasonic has decided on retrenchment too. Ministry of Human Resource and the Statistics Department must disclose the unemployment figures correctly. I doubt that the numbers published in the local newspapers were correct!

Monetary Policy,New GDP Forecast, CPI & SRR

I am stunned by the news that Microsoft would terminate only 5,000 jobs. I sincerely think the figure would be bigger. Moreover with Apple's Steve Jobs taking 6 months off to me is a signal of how bad the economy is (not just his health problem)

Bank Negara Malaysia reduced the Overnight Policy Rates 75 basis points to 2.5% thus the ceiling rate is now 2.75% and floor rate 2.25%. Commencing 1st February 2009 the Statutory Reserve Requirement for banks would be reduced further to 2%. However one figure which gave me a sigh of relief is the CPI for December 2008 - It has gone down to 4.4%

I could not but review my GDP forecast for Malaysia in 2009 to less than 1%. Considering the declining demand in computers I predict many computer chip factories in Malaysia would soon retrench their workers. When I was recuperating at the HTAN ward I met some factory workers who have been asked by their employers to come to work for 3 days instead of five.

The second stimulus package to be announced by Datuk Seri Najib Minister of Finance must look deeply into this matter. To me Najib is a more open figure considering he was a British graduate. The only way to overcome an economic crisis which started from the west is to think like the westerners but never ever forget the eastern and Islamic values.

Emphasize must be given to domestic economy now. Tourism is a good foreign income. I thank the people of Thailand for their recent demonstration and closure of Thailand two airports because foreign tourists have instead travel to Malaysia.Proton and Perodua must never ever be neglected because the National Car is the heart of the Malaysian Economy.

Gong Xi Fa Cai

Happy Chinese New Year to my Chinese readers. I am not sure what animal 2009 relates to according to the Chinese Calendar BUT I hope the Chinese fortune tellers could provide some happy news on the economy.